In national elected offices, women are severely under-represented. As Representation 2020 (a project of FairVote) highlights, women currently women hold only 18% of U.S. House seats. The 2014 midterm elections are right around the corner, and 160 women are running for seats in the U.S. House. Will the 2014 midterm elections bring the U.S. House closer to gender parity? Using FairVote’s Monopoly Politics 2014 Report, we projected the results for these candidates come November 4th. Here are a few of the highlights.

Our nation’s 100 largest cities have a combined population of more than 61 million, which represents nearly a fifth of all Americans. Representation 2020’s research into representation of women in these city elections has striking implications for the impact of electoral structure on the likelihood of women running and winning. Here are our initial findings.

“We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men and women are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness; that to secure these rights governments are instituted, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed” – Declaration of Sentiments, July 19, 1848

As FairVote has noted before, voters want to elect both men and women. Consequently, a successful political party must be inclusive of both men and women. Unfortunately for the Republican Party, it currently has a problem with women. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost the women's vote by 11%, despite losing the general election by only 4%. President Obama won among single women by an enormous 36%.  A recent CNN Poll  found that 59% of women feel that the GOP is out of touch with their gender.

Oregon's Monica Wehby seeks to increase the number of Republican women in the U.S. Senate

A host of primaries were conducted on May 20, most of which were in states that do a poor job of electing women to political office: Nebraska, West Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Several of these states saw races with strong female candidates who will now progress to the general elections in November.

Recently I’ve read a number of articles highlighting how women have helped facilitate compromise and get legislation passed in this cantankerous and uncompromising 113th Congress. One in Time noted that, “with the exception of immigration reform, every major bill passed in this [2013] session [was] authored by a woman.” An article from Brookings quoted Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Mark Pryor (D-AR) as saying that “their female colleagues deserve most of the credit for driving the compromise to reopen the U.S. government.”

Representation of women in the United States Congress lags behind more than 90 nations. It is even worse for governors and mayors: women make up only 10% of our governors and 12% of mayors in our 100 largest cities. The recent New York State mayoral primaries reflect some improvement in women’s representation through municipal leadership, but also highlight a persistent, nationwide problem of a lack of women candidates running for elected offices.

It is a widely-held belief in political science – and one of the core tenets of Representation 2020 – that multi-member districts help more women get elected. This argument is based on broadly observable correlations, like the fact that the 20 countries with the highest percentages of women in their national legislatures all use multi-member districts, or the fact that six of the ten U.S. states with the highest percentage of women in their state legislatures use at least some multi-member districts. It is also grounded in a sound theoretical idea: that parties will feel pressure to run an equal number of women to men if they are running a slate of candidates, and that voters are likely to vote for candidates of both genders if they have the opportunity to do so.

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann’s announcement that she would not seek re-election in 2014 caused a predictable stir, given her history of inspiring both passionate support and opposition. In her announcement, Bachmann drew parallels between her decision to retire her post and her support of the term limits imposed on other office-holders, saying, “…the law limits anyone from serving as President of the United States for more than eight years. In my opinion, well, eight years is also long enough for an individual to serve as a representative for a specific congressional district.”  Bachmann's allusion to term limits caught our eye, given the relationship between  term limits and women's representation in elected office over the past several decades.

After voters in South Carolina rejected four women running as Democratic Party nominees in the 2012 congressional elections, the state in a special election this May again has a chance to elect its first female House members since 1990. The likely continuation of an all-male delegation provides lessons for what it will take to achieve gender parity in Congress: a combination of gender-conscious party rules and fair voting methods.